LAFAYETTE, La. (NEWS 15) — Not only is it a bit chilly in Acadiana, but the waters in the Pacific Ocean are getting a bit cooler as well, which can mean only one thing - the start of La Niña. How will this upcoming La Niña impact the weather in Acadiana going forward? That’s a good question.
La Niña has finally arrived after being about four months late to the party. Forecasters initially thought it would arrive in August and September, which is why we forecasted such an active hurricane season, because it suppresses thunderstorm development across Central America, which quiets down the winds in the Gulf of Mexico.
Now, it was supposed to arrive in August and September, but here it is in January. So, what does this mean for our forecast? Well, it's a very weak La Niña, which means it's going to have a very weak impact on our weather and precipitation.
La Niña is about four months late and is expected to be a weak cooling trend. That's how we determine how the strength of the La Niña will be.
So, will we be affected by this La Niña? It is very unlikely but there are some ways that we can tell that there is a La Niña moving in.
So, in the typical La Niña setup, a blocking high pushes the jet stream well up to the north, giving some very cold weather for portions of Montana, Wyoming, North Dakota, and South Dakota. It also means very wet weather for the Pacific Northwest, which we've already been seeing lately.
It creates very dry portions of the Rockies, while conditions are very warm and dry for the South along with some wet conditions for the Ohio River Valley.
So, that's a typical setup. But we've already seen differences in what we're already tracking. One example is Acadiana experienced very cold temperatures the past few weeks while it was very wet up in the Ohio River Valley.
Signs are there, but it's not very clear that we have a La Niña. The biggest question that many of you have is: Will this last into hurricane season? The answer is no.
We're likely, actually, to see it start to lift out and be a neutral pattern by March and April, which is why we're talking about La Niña spring instead of La Niña hurricane season, which is great news for our upcoming hurricane season.
